[{"id":22883,"date":"2026-08-13T10:00:00","date_gmt":"2026-08-13T15:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/conversableeconomist.com\/?p=22883"},"modified":"2026-07-17T16:44:36","modified_gmt":"2026-07-17T21:44:36","slug":"to-write-well-is-to-think-clearly-david-mccullough","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/conversableeconomist.com\/2026\/08\/13\/to-write-well-is-to-think-clearly-david-mccullough\/","title":{"rendered":"&#8220;To Write Well is to Think Clearly&#8221;: David McCullough"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The great historian <a href=\"https:\/\/achievement.org\/achiever\/david-mccullough\/\" title=\"\">David McCullough<\/a> (1933-2022) won the Pulitzer prize for biography twice, for his books on <em>Truman<\/em> and <em>John Adams<\/em>, but he also wrote best-selling books on the Panama Canal, the Johnstown Flood, the Brooklyn Bridge, the Wright brothers, and others. Here are his comments in a 2002 interview with Bruce Cole on the importance of writing as an act of thinking and learning (<em>Humanities<\/em>, &#8220;The Danger of Historical Amnesia,&#8221; July\/August 2002, 23:4, my emphasis):<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">&nbsp;I am adamant on the subject that we must not cut back on funding of the teaching of the arts in the schools: music, painting, theater, dance, all of it. The great thing about the arts is that the only way you learn how to do it is by doing it. If a child learns nothing but that as a guide to life, that&#8217;s invaluable. You can&#8217;t learn to play the piano without playing the piano, you can&#8217;t learn to write without writing, and, <strong>in many ways, you can&#8217;t learn to think without thinking. Writing is thinking. To write well is to think clearly. That&#8217;s why it&#8217;s so hard.<\/strong> &#8230; <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">We all know the old expression, &#8220;I&#8217;ll work my thoughts out on paper.&#8221; That&#8217;s exactly right. There&#8217;s something about the pen that focuses the brain in a way that nothing else does. That is why we must have more writing in the schools, more writing in all subjects, not just in English classes. And the teacher who teaches history should be grading the writing, too.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The great historian David McCullough (1933-2022) won the Pulitzer prize for biography twice, for his books on Truman and John Adams, but he also wrote best-selling books on the Panama Canal, the Johnstown Flood, the Brooklyn Bridge, the Wright brothers, and others. Here are his comments in a 2002 interview with Bruce Cole on the &hellip; <a href=\"https:\/\/conversableeconomist.com\/2026\/08\/13\/to-write-well-is-to-think-clearly-david-mccullough\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading <span class=\"screen-reader-text\">&#8220;To Write Well is to Think Clearly&#8221;: David McCullough<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":206246111,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_wpcom_ai_launchpad_first_post":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"{title}\n\n{excerpt}\n\n{url}","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"_wpas_customize_per_network":false,"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_share_on_mastodon":"0"},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-22883","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized","no-featured-image"],"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t<!-- All in One SEO 5.0.2 - aioseo.com -->\n\t<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The great historian David McCullough (1933-2022) won the Pulitzer prize for biography twice, for his books on Truman and John Adams, but he also wrote best-selling books on the Panama Canal, the Johnstown Flood, the Brooklyn Bridge, the Wright brothers, and others. Here are his comments in a 2002 interview with Bruce Cole on the\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"max-image-preview:large\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"author\" content=\"conversableeconomist\"\/>\n\t<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/conversableeconomist.com\/2026\/08\/13\/to-write-well-is-to-think-clearly-david-mccullough\/\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"generator\" content=\"All in One SEO (AIOSEO) 5.0.2\" \/>\n\t\t<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n\t\t<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Conversable Economist - In Hume\u2019s spirit, I will attempt to serve as an ambassador from my world of economics, and help in \u201cfinding topics of conversation fit for the entertainment of rational creatures.\u201d\" \/>\n\t\t<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n\t\t<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"\u201cTo Write Well is to Think Clearly\u201d: David McCullough - Conversable Economist\" \/>\n\t\t<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The great historian David McCullough (1933-2022) won the Pulitzer prize for biography twice, for his books on Truman and John Adams, but he also wrote best-selling books on the Panama Canal, the Johnstown Flood, the Brooklyn Bridge, the Wright brothers, and others. 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the Sewing Machine Reduce the Workload for Women?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Is new technology that replaces a worker a good thing? We have a tendency, it seems to me, to believe that most previous inventions turned out to have overall net social benefits, but to be worried that all future inventions will instead have overall net social costs. Philipp Ager\u00a0and Davide Coluccia tackle the question of how the arrival of the sewing machine affected women in the second half of the 19th century in &#8220;<a href=\"https:\/\/cepr.org\/publications\/dp21496\">Liberation Technology? The Impact of the Sewing Machine on Women<\/a>&#8221; (CEPR Discussion Paper 21496, May 2026). Tim Phillips interview Philipp Ager about the research in <a href=\"https:\/\/cepr.org\/multimedia\/did-sewing-machine-liberate-women\" title=\"\">&#8220;Did the Sewing Machine Liberate Women?&#8221;<\/a> (VOXEU Talk, June 12, 2026). I&#8217;ll quote here from their discussion. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The sewing machine was expensive enough that it was only used by industry up to about 1860. At that point, Isaac Singer introduces a much less expensive machine for household use. Sales to households rose into the hundreds-of-thousands per year, and by the end of the 1870s, about half of all US households had their own sewing machine. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">To set the stage for what happens, Phillips offers some context from the time when the sewing machine arrives. The <em>New York Times<\/em> apparently wrote in 1860: &#8220;No one invention has brought with it so great a relief for our mothers and daughters as these iron needle women. Indeed, it is the only invention that can be claimed chiefly for women&#8217;s benefit.&#8221; Also, Phillips notes: &#8220;In 1860, the American magazine Godey&#8217;s Lady&#8217;s Book \u2014 the most widely read women&#8217;s magazine in the US at the time \u2014 did the arithmetic for us. A man&#8217;s shirt, it reckoned, took 20,620 stitches and 14 hours 26 minutes.&#8221; <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">How did all those new sewing machines affect work for women? Ager and Collucia mostly focus on detailed US census data for women in Massachesetts, which they can supplement with some Massachusetts-based data. More specifically, they have individual-level data on &#8220;occupation, fertility, marital status, place of residence,&#8221; as well as household wealth.  They don&#8217;t have individual-level data on who owned a sewing machine, so Ager explains how the tackle the question of &#8220;exposure&#8221; to the new sewing technology: <\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">[T]here are two sort of exposure to sewing machines \u2014 one is like an industrial exposure to sewing machine, and the other one is an exposure to sewing machines as a household tool. So, like basically we have information on industries where we know that they widely adopted the sewing machine during our sample period. And so, like basically we expect that in these towns where these industries were initially located that there is a higher impact on female employment, for example, in these industries. So, like you know, we expect a stronger effect in these locations where more of these industries were initially located before the sewing machine was widely adopted. And for the sewing machine as a household tool, we actually digitized information on retailers from business directories. So, we have information about sewing machine retailers that sold this appliance to households, and we use as a primary measure whether, like, you lived in a town that had access to the first sewing machine retailer in that town. And that&#8217;s our primary way how we capture exposure to sewing machine as a household appliance.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Their analysis suggests that the sewing machine increased overall employment for women, and in turn led to a lower overall marriage and fertility rate. However, these effects were strongest for women from poor and working-class households, and look quite different for woment from middle-class and high-income households. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">[T]he sewing machine overall increased the employment opportunities of working-class women in these industries that widely adopted the sewing machines. Right, this was not only the garment industry, but you can also think about, for example, the boot and the shoe production \u2014 where many of these women were pulled into the factories \u2014 but we also find some impact on, for example, general merchandise stores that started to sell ready-made clothes, and they needed seamstresses and dressmakers in their departments. &#8230; [W]e find that for these working class or poorer women that they started to reduce fertility. Why is that the case? This is consistent with the argument that there were better employment opportunities, and this basically increased the opportunity costs of having children. &#8230;  We find for poor women that \u2014 if they live before the rollout of the sewing machine really happened at scale \u2014 if they lived in towns with high industrial exposure, they were less likely to be married when they were young adults. And we can even follow them a bit longer when they completed fertility, and we also find that they had fewer children, and many of them remained unmarried when we look at them, say, as 50- or 55-year-olds. &#8230; [M]iddle class women that had access to a sewing machine were less likely to work as an adult because they used their free time for earlier family formation. They married earlier, and they also started to have children earlier, and that&#8217;s consistent with the general notion at that point in time that there was a strong stigma associated with women working outside the home once they were married.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The new sewing machine technology thus changed the time use of women, but certainly didn&#8217;t lead to &#8220;free&#8221; time. Instead, the technology interacted with class and gender norms. For poor and working-class women it opened employment opportunities to satisfy the demand for low-cost machine-sewn clothing, although these jobs often involve long hours, low pay, and sweatshop working condidtions. For middle-class women, it led to earlier marriage and more children. Like so many technology stories, there isn&#8217;t simple good-or-bad bottom line here, but a broader economic and social evolution. However, I find it impossible tor regret the &#8220;loss&#8221; of the earlier seamstress jobs that took 20,000 stitched and 14 hours of work for a single shirt.   <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Is new technology that replaces a worker a good thing? We have a tendency, it seems to me, to believe that most previous inventions turned out to have overall net social benefits, but to be worried that all future inventions will instead have overall net social costs. Philipp Ager\u00a0and Davide Coluccia tackle the question of &hellip; <a href=\"https:\/\/conversableeconomist.com\/2026\/08\/12\/did-the-sewing-machine-reduce-the-workload-for-women\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading <span class=\"screen-reader-text\">Did the Sewing Machine Reduce the Workload for Women?<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":206246111,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_wpcom_ai_launchpad_first_post":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"{title}\n\n{excerpt}\n\n{url}","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"_wpas_customize_per_network":false,"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_share_on_mastodon":"0"},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-25050","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized","no-featured-image"],"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t<!-- All in One SEO 5.0.2 - aioseo.com -->\n\t<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Is new technology that replaces a worker a good thing? 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13:18:30","updated":"2026-08-12 15:28:20","seo_analyzer_scan_date":null,"focus_keyword":null,"additional_keywords":null,"truseo_locale":null},"aioseo_breadcrumb":"<div class=\"aioseo-breadcrumbs\"><span class=\"aioseo-breadcrumb\">\n\t\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/conversableeconomist.com\/\" title=\"Home\">Home<\/a>\n\t\t<\/span><span class=\"aioseo-breadcrumb-separator\">\u00bb<\/span><span class=\"aioseo-breadcrumb\">\n\t\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/conversableeconomist.com\/category\/uncategorized\/\" title=\"Uncategorized\">Uncategorized<\/a>\n\t\t<\/span><span class=\"aioseo-breadcrumb-separator\">\u00bb<\/span><span class=\"aioseo-breadcrumb\">\n\t\t\tDid the Sewing Machine Reduce the Workload for Women?\n\t\t<\/span><\/div>","aioseo_breadcrumb_json":[{"label":"Home","link":"https:\/\/conversableeconomist.com\/"},{"label":"Uncategorized","link":"https:\/\/conversableeconomist.com\/category\/uncategorized\/"},{"label":"Did the Sewing Machine Reduce the Workload for 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in the Harbor: Beveridge and Robinson"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">For teachers of economics, one familiar metaphor about tariffs is &#8220;rocks in the harbor.&#8221; Companies and countries go to considerable trouble and expense to build docks and interconnected transportation structure, and even dredge the harbor to assure smooth transit for vessels. Having done all that, it would seem peculiarly illogical to then dump rocks into the harbor, raising the costs of trade and offsetting the previous investments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The metaphor seems to have originated with William Beveridge (of the eponymous <a href=\"https:\/\/conversableeconomist.com\/2019\/01\/16\/what-message-is-the-beveridge-curve-sending\/\" title=\"\">&#8220;Beveridge curve&#8221;<\/a>), in a 1931 book entitled <em>Tariffs: The Case Examined<\/em>. Note that this book is written as the Great Depression starts to bite, and as nations start to raise trade barriers in the hope that it will buffer their national economies against the Depression. Beveridge puts the connection between tariffs and rocks-in-the-harbor this way (p. 110):<\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Gain through freeing imports from taxation does not depend on other other countries doing the same. For other countries to tax our exports to them is an injury to us and an obstacle to trade. For us to tax their imports to us is not a correction of that injury; it is just a separate additional obstacle to trade. By allowing free imports we allow competition to determine what goods we can get most cheaply by making them ourselves and what goods we can get most cheaply by [making] something else to sell abroad in exchange for them. If other countries are taxing what we sell to them, the resulting distribution of our capital and labour among various industries will not be quite the same and not quite so profitable as if other countries also allowed free imports. But it will be more profitable than if, by taxing imports ourselves, we force ourselves to do and make things for which we were less fitted rather than things for which we were most fitted. If one country has good harbours while all the rest have bad ones, it will not realise the advantages of his good harbours so fully as if all the rest had good ones also. But it will realise some advantage; it will be better off than if it, too, sank rocks all around its coasts. <\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The origin of the rocks-in-the harbor analogy is often attributed to Joan Robinson in her chapter in &#8220;Beggar-My-Neighbour Remedies for Unemployment&#8221; in her 1937 book, <em>Essays in the Theory of Employment<\/em>. This misattribution is odd, given that Robinson literally footnotes the 1931 Beveridge book as the source. But what is perhaps more interesting is that  Robinson is actually skeptical of the rocks-in-the-harbor analogy, especially in the case where other countries are putting rocks in their own harbors. Again, it&#8217;s useful to remember that she is writing in 1937, in the aftermath of a vicious circle of trade restrictionism around the world during the Great Depression, which was not a primary cause of the Depression, but didn&#8217;t help matters, either. Robinson writes:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In times of general unemployment a game of beggar-my-neighbour is played between the nations, each one endeavouring to throw a larger share of the burden uponthe others. As soon as one succeeds in increasing its trade balance at the expense of the rest, others retaliate, and the total volume of international trade sinks continuously, relatively to the total volume of world activity. Political, strategic and sentimental considerations add fuel to the fire, and the flames of economic nationalism blaze ever higher and higher. In the process not only is the efficiency of world production impaired by the sacrifice of international division of labour, but the total of world activity is also likely to be reduced.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Are tariffs a useful answer? Robinson strongly suggests, with a bit of hedging, that if other countries are imposing tariffs, it is useful to respond with tariffs to sustain domestic employment. She writes: <\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Indeed it is obvious to common sense that a tax upon imported goods will lead to an increase in the output of rival home-produced goods, just as a tax upon any commodity will stimulate the output of substitutes for it. The popular view that free trade is all very well so long as all nations are free-traders, but that when other nations erect tariffs we must erect tariffs too, is countered by theargument that it would be just as sensible to drop rocks into our harbours because other nations have rocky coasts. [Beveridge is footnoted here.] This argument, once more, is unexceptionable on its own ground. The tariffs of foreign nations (except in so far as they can be modified by bargaining) are simply a fact of nature from the point of view of the home authorities, and the maximum of specialisation that is possible in face  them still yields the maximum of efficiency. But whenthe game of beggar-my-neighbour has been played for one or two rounds, and foreign nations have stimulated their exports and cut down their imports by every device in their power, the burden of unemployment upon any country which refuses to join in the game will become intolerable and the demand for some form of retaliation irresistible. The popular view that tariffs must be answered by tariffs has therefore much practical force, though the question still remains open from which suit in any given circumstances it is wisest to play a card.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Robinson elides the distinction between economic and political forces here. When she writes that the demand for tariff retaliation will be &#8220;irresistable,&#8221; she seems to be hinting that it is irresistable by politicians. But the argument that politicians may be prodded into poor policy choices is not an economic counterargument. When she writes that the &#8220;popular view that tariffs must be answered by tariffs has therefore much practical force,&#8221; that word &#8220;practical&#8221; again seems to suggest political necessity rather than making an economic case, and she leaves behind a careful &#8220;the question remains open&#8221; clause at the end of the paragraph. In the rest of the essay, Robinson works through the various arguments about elasticities, exchange rates, and nominal wages that need to hold for  retaliatory tariffs to make economic sense, and argues that &#8220;there are circumstances in which a limited indulgence in them cannot be regarded as a crime.&#8221;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Here, I have no wish to engage Robinson&#8217;s arguments directly, but it does seem worth noting that the current US experience with trade and trade deficits is rather different from what Robinson was envisioning. For example, her discussion is implicitly about trade in goods; it is not about the global supply chains that involve imports of inputs to make products (about half of all US imports), many of which go into products that are then exported. She is writing at a time when a goal of fixed exchange is assumed. She is writing under an assumption that trade surpluses are necessarily beneficial for an economy, and closely linked to higher employment, but the global economy in the last half-century has observed a pattern where economies like Japan and Germany have had high trade surpluses together with slow growth and at times high unemployment, w hile the US economy has had high trade deficits while growing faster and maintaining relatively low unemployment rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Beveridge&#8217;s phrasing of rocks-in-the-harbor remains, for me, a useful tool of pedagogy. Robinson&#8217;s response, although hedged and now inevitably dated, offers a useful reminder that economic analysis needs to be argued through details of analysis, and that metaphors are not enough. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>For teachers of economics, one familiar metaphor about tariffs is &#8220;rocks in the harbor.&#8221; Companies and countries go to considerable trouble and expense to build docks and interconnected transportation structure, and even dredge the harbor to assure smooth transit for vessels. Having done all that, it would seem peculiarly illogical to then dump rocks into &hellip; <a href=\"https:\/\/conversableeconomist.com\/2026\/08\/11\/rocks-in-the-harbor-beveridge-and-robinson\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading <span class=\"screen-reader-text\">Rocks in the Harbor: Beveridge and Robinson<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":206246111,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_wpcom_ai_launchpad_first_post":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"{title}\n\n{excerpt}\n\n{url}","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"_wpas_customize_per_network":false,"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_share_on_mastodon":"0"},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-24459","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized","no-featured-image"],"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t<!-- All in One SEO 5.0.2 - aioseo.com -->\n\t<meta name=\"description\" content=\"For teachers of economics, one familiar metaphor about tariffs is &quot;rocks in the harbor.&quot; Companies and countries go to considerable trouble and expense to build docks and interconnected transportation structure, and even dredge the harbor to assure smooth transit for vessels. 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Happiness Was Invented"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">My tradition on this blog is to take a break (mostly!) from current events sometime in mid- August. Instead, I pre-schedule daily posts based on things I read during the previous year about three of my preoccupations: economics, editing\/writing, and academia. With the posts pre-scheduled, I can then relax more deeply when floating on my back in a Minnesota lake, staring up at the sky.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">__________________<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Economists often use the term &#8220;happiness&#8221; synonymously with the term &#8220;utility,&#8221; which in turn is the basis for a basic economic model that people seek as best they can (given the cognitive constraints they face) to maximize their own utility. The connection goes back to the utilitarian philosopher Jeremy Bentham, who in one of the less-famous works of 1776 (overshadowed by the <a href=\"https:\/\/conversableeconomist.com\/2026\/07\/04\/declaration-of-independence-track-changes-version\/\" title=\"\">Declaration<\/a> of <a href=\"https:\/\/conversableeconomist.com\/2026\/07\/03\/what-does-the-declaration-mean-by-pursuit-of-happiness\/\" title=\"\">Independence<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/conversableeconomist.com\/2026\/03\/16\/the-wealth-of-nations-whats-it-all-about\/\" title=\"\">Adam Smith&#8217;s <em>Wealth of Nations<\/em><\/a>), described the foundations of this theory of utilitarianism in <a href=\"https:\/\/archive.org\/details\/bim_eighteenth-century_a-fragment-on-government_bentham-jeremy_1776\" title=\"\">&#8220;A Fragment on Government.&#8221; <\/a>(Those of you who have read Bentham will be unsurprised that his &#8220;fragment&#8221; runs for several dozen pages.) Bentham begins with a &#8220;fundamental axiom&#8221; and then explains:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">It is the greatest happiness of the greatest number that is the measure of right and wrong &#8230; An act\u2019s tendency to promote happiness is what we call its <em>utility<\/em>; its divergence from this is what we call harmfulness . So it is with actions that are among the objects of the Law: the only way to make a man see clearly the property of them that every man is in search of\u2014i.e. the only way to give him satisfaction\u2014is to point out to him their utility or harmfulness.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Of course, Bentham was not the first to give &#8220;happiness&#8221; a central role. John Locke in his 1690<em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.gutenberg.org\/files\/10615\/10615-h\/10615-h.htm\" title=\"\"> An Essay on Human Understanding<\/a><\/em> had made the term central decades earlier. Both &#8220;pursuit of happiness&#8221; in the Declaration of Independence and Bentham&#8217;s utilitarian axiom of happiness were drawing heavily on Locke, who wrote: <\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Nature, I confess, has put into man a desire of happiness and an aversion to misery: these indeed are innate practical principles which (as practical principles ought) DO continue constantly to operate and influence all our actions without ceasing &#8230; As therefore the highest perfection of intellectual nature lies in a careful and constant pursuit of true and solid happiness; so the care of ourselves, that we mistake not imaginary for real happiness, is the necessary foundation of our liberty.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">But when Locke was writing, the centrality of happiness was a relatively new idea. Phil Withington tracks it down linguistically in &#8220;The Invention of `Happiness,'&#8221; an essay published in the 2017 book <em><a href=\"https:\/\/global.oup.com\/academic\/product\/suffering-and-happiness-in-england-1550-1850-narratives-and-representations-9780198748267\" title=\"\">Suffering and Happiness in England 1550-1850: Narratives and Representations<\/a><\/em>, edited by Michael J. Braddick and Joanna Innes (<a href=\"https:\/\/eprints.whiterose.ac.uk\/id\/eprint\/105612\/\" title=\"\">a reprint of the chapter in working paper form is available here<\/a>). Withington starts off with a vivid example. Thomas More&#8217;s <em>Utopia<\/em> was published in Latin in 1516. For a century, translations of the work into English did not include the word &#8220;happiness.&#8221; But then they did. Withington writes: <\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The word \u2018happiness\u2019 is absent from the first English version of Thomas More\u2019s Utopia, which was translated into English from the Latin in 1551 and again in 1556 by Ralph Robinson. \u2018Happiness\u2019 remains absent from the next four editions of Robinson\u2019s translation, which was republished regularly to 1639. But when Gilbert Burnet translated Utopia anew from the Latin, in 1684, he used \u2018happiness\u2019 no less than nineteen times. What follows looks to explain and contextualize this striking semantic development.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In short, the modern idea of happiness in the English language seems to have been invented in the mid-16th century, latched on to translators like Burnet and writers like by Locke the later decades of the 17th century, and then passed forward to modern economics by way of Jeremy Bentham, Thomas Jefferson, and doubtless an array of others. In modern times, there are self-help books about finding happiness and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.worldhappiness.report\/ed\/2026\/\" title=\"\">serious research and policy based on survey data on reported levels of  happiness<\/a>. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">But what came before happiness? Translations of Latin works (like More&#8217;s Utopia) often  used &#8220;felicitas (denoting worldly contentment) or beatitude (denoting spiritual fulfillment and redemption).&#8221; Other writers uses felicity or blissfulness. But the use of &#8220;happiness&#8221; was rare. Withington does a deep dive into historical writings from the 15th ot the 17th century and finds:  <\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">But taking the story back reveals &#8230; that \u2018happiness\u2019 has not always been as conceptually stable as contemporary commentators, or indeed historians, assume \u2013 that, indeed, it was only in the sixteenth century that the word began to acquire the meanings with which we associate it today. &#8230; Happiness\u2019 derived from the Old Norse noun \u2018hap\u2019, meaning luck or fortune, was probably in use by the mid-fifteenth century. Before the 1550s the semantics of \u2018happiness\u2019 were largely informed by this provenance: the addition of the English suffix \u2018ness\u2019 to the adjective \u2018happy\u2019 made for a word that indicated the quality and state of hap (i.e. fortune) or the circumstances and phenomena that exemplified such a condition. &#8230; But as well as signifying hap, between the 1470s and the 1550s \u2018happiness\u2019 was increasingly used to do new semantic work, accumulating connotations that it had not previously possessed &#8230; [T]wo other concepts to migrate to \u2018happiness\u2019 by the 1550s offer more concrete evidence that the word became an important conduit of classical and patristic ideas into vernacular and spoken English. These were the Greek notion of <em>eudaimonia<\/em> and the Latin sense of <em>summum bonum<\/em>: on the one hand, the realization and fulfillment of perfect and \u2018natural\u2019 selfhood; on the other hand, the overarching ideal \u2013 or \u2018sovereign good\u2019 \u2013 upon which the good life, the good person, and the good afterlife is based. &#8230; The cord between happiness and hap was broken.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">By the 1560s, writers were distinguishing between &#8220;\u2018heavenly life, and true happiness\u2019 (Christian \u2018blessedness\u2019) and the \u2018civil\u2019 happiness (\u2018felicity\u2019) that was achievable on earth.&#8221; Moreover, &#8220;happiness&#8221; was in some cases explicitly used to refer to the overall good of a society or countrie, and in other cases to refer to the feelings of individuals. The multipurpose meaning of &#8220;happiness&#8221; has been an issue ever since it became such a broad catch-all term. For example, Locke carefullly warns in 1690 &#8220;that we mistake not imaginary for real happiness.&#8221; So who decides what happiness is imaginary or real? <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Daniel Kahneman (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.nobelprize.org\/prizes\/economic-sciences\/2002\/summary\/\">Nobel \u201902<\/a>) was one of the founders of behavioral economics and also one of the early movers in using happiness survey data in economic research. However, later in life he emphasized the complexities of happiness: for example, one might consider happiness in anticipation of an event, happiness when an event occurs, or happiness in remembering an event. <a href=\"https:\/\/conversableeconomist.com\/2019\/01\/09\/daniel-kahneman-people-dont-want-to-be-happy\/\" title=\"\">For a given individual, these categories of happiness may be quite different. Kahneman said to one interviewer<\/a>: <\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">I gradually became convinced that people don\u2019t want to be happy &#8230; They want to be satisfied with their life. &#8230; People don\u2019t want to be happy the way I\u2019ve defined the term \u2013 what I experience here and now. In my view, it\u2019s much more important for them to be satisfied, to experience life satisfaction, from the perspective of \u2018What I remember,\u2019 of the story they tell about their lives.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In my own mind, Kahneman&#8217;s formulation helps to explain why someone might, say, take classes in something where they are a novice (say, dancing or cooking), or serve a hot meal to a large family every day or enter an intense graduate program or work crazy hours at a start-up or train to run a marathon. In the business and stress of the moment, it might be hard to describe those experiences as always and continually &#8220;happy.&#8221; But they make complete sense if they are part of a narrative you like to tell yourself about your life.   <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">I would not suggest revising the Declaration of Independence to refer to &#8220;life, liberty, and the pursuit of satisfaction,&#8221; nor rewriting Bentham to say that &#8220;it is the greatest satisfaction of the greatest number that is the measure of right and wrong.&#8221; But thinking about what people truly want from their lives is at the center of economics and the social sciences. From that perspective, &#8220;happiness&#8221; can be a useful catch-all term and short-hand as long as one remembers that it is a stand-in for a considerably deeper and historically mutable concept. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>My tradition on this blog is to take a break (mostly!) from current events sometime in mid- August. Instead, I pre-schedule daily posts based on things I read during the previous year about three of my preoccupations: economics, editing\/writing, and academia. With the posts pre-scheduled, I can then relax more deeply when floating on my &hellip; <a href=\"https:\/\/conversableeconomist.com\/2026\/08\/10\/when-happiness-was-invented\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading <span class=\"screen-reader-text\">When Happiness Was Invented<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":206246111,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_wpcom_ai_launchpad_first_post":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"{title}\n\n{excerpt}\n\n{url}","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"_wpas_customize_per_network":false,"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_share_on_mastodon":"0"},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-24922","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized","no-featured-image"],"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t<!-- All in One SEO 5.0.2 - aioseo.com -->\n\t<meta name=\"description\" content=\"My tradition on this blog is to take a break (mostly!) from current events sometime in mid- August. 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Instead, I pre-schedule daily posts based on things I read during the previous year about three of my preoccupations: economics, editing\/writing, and academia. With the posts pre-scheduled, I can then relax more deeply when floating on my","twitter:image":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/conversableeconomist.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/08\/cropped-Screen-Shot-2021-08-23-at-2.04.56-PM.png?fit=889%2C66&ssl=1"},"aioseo_meta_data":{"post_id":"24922","title":null,"description":null,"keywords":null,"keyphrases":{"focus":{"keyphrase":"","score":0,"analysis":{"keyphraseInTitle":{"score":0,"maxScore":9,"error":1}}},"additional":[]},"primary_term":null,"canonical_url":null,"og_title":null,"og_description":null,"og_object_type":"default","og_image_type":"default","og_image_url":null,"og_image_width":null,"og_image_height":null,"og_image_custom_url":null,"og_image_custom_fields":null,"og_video":"","og_custom_url":null,"og_article_section":null,"og_article_tags":null,"twitter_use_og":false,"twitter_card":"default","twitter_image_type":"default","twitter_image_url":null,"twitter_image_custom_url":null,"twitter_image_custom_fields":null,"twitter_title":null,"twitter_description":null,"schema":{"blockGraphs":[],"customGraphs":[],"default":{"data":{"Article":[],"Course":[],"Dataset":[],"FAQPage":[],"Movie":[],"Person":[],"Product":[],"ProductReview":[],"Car":[],"Recipe":[],"Service":[],"SoftwareApplication":[],"WebPage":[]},"graphName":"BlogPosting","isEnabled":true},"graphs":[]},"schema_type":"default","schema_type_options":null,"pillar_content":false,"robots_default":true,"robots_noindex":false,"robots_noarchive":false,"robots_nosnippet":false,"robots_nofollow":false,"robots_noimageindex":false,"robots_noodp":false,"robots_notranslate":false,"robots_max_snippet":"-1","robots_max_videopreview":"-1","robots_max_imagepreview":"large","priority":null,"frequency":"default","local_seo":null,"breadcrumb_settings":null,"limit_modified_date":false,"ai":{"faqs":[],"keyPoints":[],"schemas":[],"titles":[],"descriptions":[],"socialPosts":{"email":{"subject":"","preview":"","content":""},"linkedin":[],"twitter":[],"facebook":[],"instagram":[]}},"created":"2026-07-28 16:32:37","updated":"2026-08-10 15:25:42","seo_analyzer_scan_date":null,"focus_keyword":null,"additional_keywords":null,"truseo_locale":null},"aioseo_breadcrumb":"<div class=\"aioseo-breadcrumbs\"><span class=\"aioseo-breadcrumb\">\n\t\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/conversableeconomist.com\/\" title=\"Home\">Home<\/a>\n\t\t<\/span><span class=\"aioseo-breadcrumb-separator\">\u00bb<\/span><span class=\"aioseo-breadcrumb\">\n\t\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/conversableeconomist.com\/category\/uncategorized\/\" title=\"Uncategorized\">Uncategorized<\/a>\n\t\t<\/span><span class=\"aioseo-breadcrumb-separator\">\u00bb<\/span><span class=\"aioseo-breadcrumb\">\n\t\t\tWhen Happiness Was Invented\n\t\t<\/span><\/div>","aioseo_breadcrumb_json":[{"label":"Home","link":"https:\/\/conversableeconomist.com\/"},{"label":"Uncategorized","link":"https:\/\/conversableeconomist.com\/category\/uncategorized\/"},{"label":"When Happiness Was 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Effects of AI: Modest for a Decade or Two, At Least"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">It is of course impossible to predict the effects of new AI technologies on total economic growth in a precise way, but there are strong reasons to believe that the effect will be modest for a decade or two, anyway. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.aeaweb.org\/articles?id=10.1257\/jep.20261505\" title=\"\">Charles Jones Jones explores some of the reasons in &#8220;AI and Our Economic Future,&#8221; i<\/a>n the most recent <em>Journal of Economic Perspectives<\/em> (Summer 2026). His arguments readily accept that AI capabilities both have grown very rapidly and will continue to grow very rapidly: indeed, Jones begins by stating that &#8220;Artificial intelligence (AI) will likely be the most transformative technology of the modern era.&#8221; But he also suggests that growth of this particular technological capability will add to total economic growth in only a modest way for the medium term. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">(In the shade of this parenthesis, I will note that I work as Managing Editor of the J<em>ournal of Economic Perspectives<\/em>. Because both the JEP and this post are freely available, I have no financial conflict of interest here. But I confess an intellectual conflict of interest: I do think that the stuff published by the journal I help to run is interesting.)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">As a starting point, consider this graph of US economic growth since 1870. The red dashed line shows a growth rate of 2% per year. The blue solid line shows actual growth of average US income per person. You can see economic events like the fall of the Great Depression, the bounceback during World War II and after, but amidst all the events of the last 150 years, 2% growth on average is a pretty good description of what has happened. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"712\" height=\"493\" data-attachment-id=\"25033\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/conversableeconomist.com\/2026\/08\/07\/growth-effects-of-ai-modest-for-a-decade-or-two-at-least\/image-398\/\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/conversableeconomist.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-4.png?fit=1148%2C795&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"1148,795\" data-comments-opened=\"0\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;alt&quot;:&quot;&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"image\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/conversableeconomist.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-4.png?fit=712%2C493&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/conversableeconomist.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-4.png?resize=712%2C493&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-25033\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/conversableeconomist.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-4.png?resize=1024%2C709&amp;ssl=1 1024w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/conversableeconomist.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-4.png?resize=300%2C208&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/conversableeconomist.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-4.png?resize=768%2C532&amp;ssl=1 768w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/conversableeconomist.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-4.png?resize=1080%2C748&amp;ssl=1 1080w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/conversableeconomist.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/image-4.png?w=1148&amp;ssl=1 1148w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 712px) 100vw, 712px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Jones writes: <\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Consider the astounding innovations that underlie the graph. In the 1870s, Thomas Edison\u2019s experiments with electric lighting were just getting underway. Fifty years later, electrification had transformed the economy, both in factories and in city life. Throughout the 150 years, innovations such as the internal combustion engine, airplanes, vacuum tubes, antibiotics, transistors, semiconductors, personal computers, and the internet profoundly changed living standards. Many of these innovations are what economic historians call \u201cgeneral purpose technologies,\u201d whose transformative effects extend throughout the economy. Many also automated some of the tasks involved in creating new ideas\u2014say, through improvements in scientific tools and equipment\u2014raising the productivity of research and idea generation. Yet apparently none of these innovations changed the long- run growth rate of the US economy.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">To put it another way, it may be that the extraordinary run of innovations of the last 150 years, <a href=\"https:\/\/conversableeconomist.com\/2026\/04\/13\/the-us-as-an-innovation-economy\/\" title=\"\">a disproportionate number of them with US roots,<\/a> were needed just to keep the economy growing at that 2% annual pace. But the idea that a fast-growing new technology with broad implications for work and products across the economy will juice economic growth beyond the historical average just hasn&#8217;t happened. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Indeed, the US economy has a vivid example in the past few decades of a general purpose technology with sweeping implications for work and the economy that became amazingly and dramatically cheaper. As Jones points out:  &#8220;You have on your desk roughly 100 million times the computing power that was available on the best computers from the early 1970s. But you and I are not 100 million times more productive &#8230;&#8221; If you had known back in 1970 that computing power would become 100 million times cheaper in the next half-century, would you have predicted that the US economy would just keep tootling along with 2% growth? In hindsight, of course, it&#8217;s easy to say &#8220;yes, it&#8217;s all obvious to me.&#8221; Or would you have been more likely to believe that most workers would become obsolete and the economy would be unrecognizably changed? <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The &#8220;O-ring theory of development&#8221; also known as a theory of weak links is one way to organize thinking on this subject. Jones explains: <\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">An iconic illustration of weak links arose with the accident that destroyed the space shuttle Challenger in 1986. The post-crash investigation found that the key design flaw was in the O-rings: doughnut-shaped pieces of rubber that are designed to create a seal between two interlocking parts. Challenger launched during record-low temperatures causing the O-rings to become brittle and leak, which caused the space shuttle to explode. Partly inspired by this episode, Kremer (1993) developed his O-ring model of economic development.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Basically, the O-ring theory points out that the speed of any complicated process will be limited by its most fragile or difficult-to-replace part. There are probably certain parts in your car that could handle a speed of 300 miles-per-hour; but there are other parts that cannot handle that speed, and they limit how fast you can go. From this perspective, the question for total economic growth is not how fast AI will progress, but what other non-AI factors will limit the speed of growth.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Say that AI tools make all computer software infinitely cheap&#8211;essentially a price of zero. Well, software spending is now about 2% of the US economy. If firms and consumers could have and use all the software they want at a price of zero, how much would the total economy expand? Sure, it would be a boost for output. But it wouldn&#8217;t be infinite growth. Of course, if 100% of all production could be automated at near-zero cost, then the gains for consumption (everything for nothing!) could be very large. But that outcome is hard to imagine. For example, AI is not going to create more land or natural resources, so even if AI can give us all infinite numbers of on-screen entertainment channels, some imperatives of scarcity and geography will continue to apply for producing energy and physical goods. Organizational and political change in response to AI capabilities can be a limiting O-ring factor, too. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">So what about scenarios between 2% of everything being automated and (essentially) free, and 100% of everything being automated? Jones offers some suggestive but pursely illustrative calculations based on assumptions about AI substituting for large and smaller parts of output; for example, one calculation suggests that even if AI could substitute for 50% of economic inputs by replacing all cognitive labor, total GDP would rise by 19%. And of course, in a world of O-ring change, the process of AI making these changes of this size is not going to happen over a year or two, but instead over a few decades.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Again, none of this is to say that AI will not advance rapidly and cause major changes, only that from the perspective of total economic growth, these changes are likely to appear relatively modest for years, even for a couple of decades. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Jones paper has a number of other insights, but I&#8217;ll just add one of them here. In discussions of AI, there is enormous focus on jobs and economic output, but considerably less focus on possible gains to health. One of the great strengths of AI is to focus on a well-defined problem (think chess, or a math proof), and then to draw on a vast body of knowlege to suggest possible answers. Working with AI tools, it seems at least possible that researchers will be able to speed up their progress on addressing health risks of cancer, heart disease, high blood pressure, diabetes, Alzheimer&#8217;s, and a wide range of other health risks. Maybe you aren&#8217;t at all sure that AI is worth the social disruption just for the economic growth. But what if AI-based research offers a chance for the average person now alive to enjoy several decades more of healthy life? It could be that the non-economic gains from AI-based research (better health? clean energy?) turn out to be more important for human well-being than its effects on total economic growth.    <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"> &nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>It is of course impossible to predict the effects of new AI technologies on total economic growth in a precise way, but there are strong reasons to believe that the effect will be modest for a decade or two, anyway. Charles Jones Jones explores some of the reasons in &#8220;AI and Our Economic Future,&#8221; in &hellip; <a href=\"https:\/\/conversableeconomist.com\/2026\/08\/07\/growth-effects-of-ai-modest-for-a-decade-or-two-at-least\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading <span class=\"screen-reader-text\">Growth Effects of AI: Modest for a Decade or Two, At Least<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":206246111,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_wpcom_ai_launchpad_first_post":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"{title}\n\n{excerpt}\n\n{url}","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"_wpas_customize_per_network":false,"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_share_on_mastodon":"0"},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-25026","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized","no-featured-image"],"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t<!-- All in One SEO 5.0.2 - aioseo.com -->\n\t<meta name=\"description\" content=\"It is of course impossible to predict the effects of new AI technologies on total economic growth in a precise way, but there are strong reasons to believe that the effect will be modest for a decade or two, anyway. 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Charles Jones Jones explores some of the reasons in &quot;AI and Our Economic Future,&quot; in","twitter:image":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/conversableeconomist.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/08\/cropped-Screen-Shot-2021-08-23-at-2.04.56-PM.png?fit=889%2C66&ssl=1"},"aioseo_meta_data":{"post_id":"25026","title":null,"description":null,"keywords":null,"keyphrases":{"focus":{"keyphrase":"","score":0,"analysis":{"keyphraseInTitle":{"score":0,"maxScore":9,"error":1}}},"additional":[]},"primary_term":null,"canonical_url":null,"og_title":null,"og_description":null,"og_object_type":"default","og_image_type":"default","og_image_url":null,"og_image_width":null,"og_image_height":null,"og_image_custom_url":null,"og_image_custom_fields":null,"og_video":"","og_custom_url":null,"og_article_section":null,"og_article_tags":null,"twitter_use_og":false,"twitter_card":"default","twitter_image_type":"default","twitter_image_url":null,"twitter_image_custom_url":null,"twitter_image_custom_fields":null,"twitter_title":null,"twitter_description":null,"schema":{"blockGraphs":[],"customGraphs":[],"default":{"data":{"Article":[],"Course":[],"Dataset":[],"FAQPage":[],"Movie":[],"Person":[],"Product":[],"ProductReview":[],"Car":[],"Recipe":[],"Service":[],"SoftwareApplication":[],"WebPage":[]},"graphName":"BlogPosting","isEnabled":true},"graphs":[]},"schema_type":"default","schema_type_options":null,"pillar_content":false,"robots_default":true,"robots_noindex":false,"robots_noarchive":false,"robots_nosnippet":false,"robots_nofollow":false,"robots_noimageindex":false,"robots_noodp":false,"robots_notranslate":false,"robots_max_snippet":"-1","robots_max_videopreview":"-1","robots_max_imagepreview":"large","priority":null,"frequency":"default","local_seo":null,"breadcrumb_settings":null,"limit_modified_date":false,"ai":{"faqs":[],"keyPoints":[],"schemas":[],"titles":[],"descriptions":[],"socialPosts":{"email":{"subject":"","preview":"","content":""},"linkedin":[],"twitter":[],"facebook":[],"instagram":[]}},"created":"2026-08-05 03:48:54","updated":"2026-08-08 10:22:17","seo_analyzer_scan_date":null,"focus_keyword":null,"additional_keywords":null,"truseo_locale":null},"aioseo_breadcrumb":"<div class=\"aioseo-breadcrumbs\"><span class=\"aioseo-breadcrumb\">\n\t\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/conversableeconomist.com\/\" title=\"Home\">Home<\/a>\n\t\t<\/span><span class=\"aioseo-breadcrumb-separator\">\u00bb<\/span><span class=\"aioseo-breadcrumb\">\n\t\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/conversableeconomist.com\/category\/uncategorized\/\" title=\"Uncategorized\">Uncategorized<\/a>\n\t\t<\/span><span class=\"aioseo-breadcrumb-separator\">\u00bb<\/span><span class=\"aioseo-breadcrumb\">\n\t\t\tGrowth Effects of AI: Modest for a Decade or Two, At Least\n\t\t<\/span><\/div>","aioseo_breadcrumb_json":[{"label":"Home","link":"https:\/\/conversableeconomist.com\/"},{"label":"Uncategorized","link":"https:\/\/conversableeconomist.com\/category\/uncategorized\/"},{"label":"Growth Effects of AI: Modest for a Decade or Two, At Least","link":"https:\/\/conversableeconomist.com\/2026\/08\/07\/growth-effects-of-ai-modest-for-a-decade-or-two-at-least\/"}],"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/mastodon.social\/@TimothyTaylor\/117054821534722759","error":""},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_likes_enabled":false,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/pd3OXE-6vE","jetpack_featured_media_url":"","post_mailing_queue_ids":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/conversableeconomist.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/25026","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/conversableeconomist.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/conversableeconomist.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/conversableeconomist.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/206246111"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/conversableeconomist.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=25026"}],"version-history":[{"count":17,"href":"https:\/\/conversableeconomist.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/25026\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":25055,"href":"https:\/\/conversableeconomist.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/25026\/revisions\/25055"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/conversableeconomist.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=25026"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/conversableeconomist.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=25026"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/conversableeconomist.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=25026"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}]