Starting in 2012, the University of Vermont began a process of requiring that all campus locations selling beverages provided 30% \”healthy\” beverages, and then that all locations phases out all sales of bottled water. There were two hope: 1) reduced use of bottles, when bottled water was no longer available, and 2) that healthier beverages would be consumed. In a vivid demonstration of the law of unintended consequences, bottle use rose and fewer healthy beverages were consumed. Elizabeth R. Berman and Rachel K. Johnson tell the story in \”The Unintended Consequences of Changes in
Beverage Options and the Removal of Bottled Water on a University Campus,\” appearing in the July 2015 issue of the American Journal of Public Health (105:7, pp. 1404-1408). This journal isn\’t freely available online, although some readers will have access through library subscriptions.
As a starting point, here\’s the description of the policy change from Berman and Johnson (footnotes omitted:
Policy changes related to the types of bottled beverages sold at the University of Vermont in Burlington, Vermont, provided an opportunity to study how changes in beverage offerings affected the beverage choices as well as the calorie and total and added sugar consumption of consumers. First, in August 2012, all campus locations selling bottled beverages were required to provide a 30% healthy beverage ratio in accordance with the Alliance for a Healthier Generation’s beverage guidelines. Then, in January 2013, campus sales locations were required to remove bottled water while still maintaining the required 30% healthy beverage ratio.
They collected data on the beverages shipped to the sellers at the University of Vermont campus, and used that data as a basis for estimating consumption of bottled beverages. The study didn\’t try to estimate consumption of other beverages, like fountain drinks or coffee served in cafeterias. They found:
The number of bottles per capita shipped to the university campus did not change significantly between spring 2012 (baseline) and fall 2012, when the minimum healthy beverage requirement was put in place. However, between fall 2012 and spring 2013, when bottled water was banned, the per capita number of bottles shipped to campus increased significantly. Thus, the bottled water ban did not reduce the number of bottles entering the waste stream from the university campus, which was the ultimate goal of the ban. Furthermore, with the removal of bottled water, people in the university community increased their consumption of other, less healthy bottled beverages. …
Per capita shipments of bottled beverages did not change significantly between spring 2012 and spring 2013 but did increase significantly from 21.8 bottles per person in fall 2012 to 26.3 bottles per person in spring 2013 (P=.03; Table 1). Calories, total sugars, and added sugars shipped per capita also increased significantly between fall 2012 and spring 2013, as shown in Table 1 (P= .02, P = .02, and P=.03, respectively). Calories per bottle shipped increased significantly over the 3 semesters by an average of 8.76 calories per bottle each semester.
(For those who don\’t read statistics, the P numbers in parenthesis are telling you that these changes after the policy took effect are statistically significant–that is, unlikely to have happened by chance.)