\”Pareidolia\” refers to the common human practice of looking at random outcomes but trying to impose patterns on them. For example, we all know in the logical part of our brain that there are a roughly a kajillion different variables in the world, and so if we look through the possibilities, we will will have a 100% chance of finding some variables that are highly correlated with each other. These correlations will be a matter of pure chance, and they carry no meaning. But when my own brain, and perhaps yours, sees one of these correlations, I can feel my thoughts start searching for a story to explain what looks to my eyes like a connected pattern.
Eye-balling these kinds of figures gives you a sense of why these correlations arise. For example, if you have both a right-hand and a left-hand axis, you can set the scales on those figures so that draw the figure so that the starting points and the ending points of the two lines are close to each other–and then the intermediate lines will look fairly common as well. If comparing to data on a certain statistic in a certain state (divorces in Maine, fishing accidents in Kentucky), your statistical antennae should be warning you that by the time you look through a large group of family or health statistics for each of 50 states, there\’s a reasonable chance of finding whatever pattern you are looking for just by random chance. If you limit the search to relatively short stretches of data like a decade or so, and plug in your computer to sort through the possibilities, finding meaningless correlations isn\’t going to be hard.
