I have been the Managing Editor of the Journal of Economic Perspectives since the first issue in Summer 1987. The JEP is published by the American Economic Association, which decided back in 2011–to my delight–that the journal would be freely available online, from the current issue all the way back to the first issue. You can download individual articles or entire issues, and it is available in various e-reader formats, too. Here, I’ll start with the Table of Contents for the just-released Spring 2024 issue, which in the Taylor household is known as issue #148. Below that are abstracts and direct links for all of the papers. I will probably blog more specifically about some of the papers in the few weeks, as well.
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Symposium: How Research Informs Policy Analysis
“How Economists Could Help Inform Economic and Budget Analysis Used by the US Congress,” Staff of the Congressional Budget Office
The US Congress uses economic and budgetary projections, cost estimates for proposed legislation, and other analyses provided by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) as part of its legislative process. CBO makes assessments based on an understanding of federal programs and revenue sources, reading the relevant research literature, analysis of data, and consultation with outside experts—and often relies on economic research. This article begins with a discussion of the role of the Congressional Budget Office and then discusses how economists could conduct research that would help inform the Congress by improving the quality of the analysis and parameter estimates that CBO uses. It gives overall context and specific examples in seven areas: credit and insurance, energy and the environment, health, labor, macroeconomics, national security, and taxes and transfers.
Full-Text Access | Supplementary Materials
“The Economic Constitution of the United States,” by Cass R. Sunstein
The United States has an Economic Constitution, governing federal regulation, and explaining how to conduct regulatory impact analysis, with reference to quantification and monetization of the costs and benefits of proposed and final regulations. Known as OMB Circular A-4, the Economic Constitution of the United States was thoroughly revised in 2023, with new directions on behavioral economics and nudging; on discount rates and effects on future generations; on distributional effects and how to account for them; and on benefits and costs that are hard or impossible to quantify. The revised document leaves numerous open questions, involving (for example) the valuation of human life, the valuation of morbidity effects, and the value of the lives of children.
Full-Text Access | Supplementary Materials
“The Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission and Economic Research,” by Wendy Edelberg and Greg Feldberg
Researchers and economic research were essential to the success of the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission. For example, researchers submitted testimony, briefed commissioners, and spoke with our staff in recorded interviews. They also provided access to key data sources and helped us use them. Although we started our investigation barely one year after the height of the crisis, there was already a strong core of early, empirical research grappling with many of our key questions, such as why investors ran certain markets, why incentive problems pervaded securitization markets, and why risk management failed at so many large companies. We also benefited from the wealth of research exploring developments in financial markets leading up to the crisis. The process to build the research staff on a tight deadline was chaotic, and we needed people willing to work long hours, work on a team, and follow the evidence wherever it took us.
Full-Text Access | Supplementary Materials
“Philanthropic Cause Prioritization,” by Emily Oehlsen
Many foundations decide how much and where to give based on their founders’ personal precommitments to specific issues, geographies, and/or institutions. If a grantmaking organization instead wanted to select problems based on a general measure of impact per dollar spent, how should it approach this goal? What tools could it use to identify promising cause areas (climate change, education, or health, for example) or to compare grants that achieve different results? This paper focuses on an approach followed by the grantmaking organization Open Philanthropy for its “Global Health and Wellbeing” portfolio, with an emphasis on two key frameworks: equalizing marginal philanthropic returns, as well as importance, neglectedness, and tractability. It describes measurement and comparability under the first framework, and then applies the second framework to the example of reducing exposure to lead. It concludes by considering critiques and areas for improvement.
Full-Text Access | Supplementary Materials
The Labor Market and Macroeconomics
“The Shifting Reasons for Beveridge Curve Shifts,” by Gadi Barlevy, R. Jason Faberman, Bart Hobijn and Ayşegül Şahin
We discuss how the relative importance of factors that contribute to movements of the US Beveridge curve has changed from 1959 to 2023. We review these factors in the context of a simple flow analogy used to capture the main insights of search and matching theories of the labor market. Changes in inflow rates, related to demographics, accounted for Beveridge curve shifts between 1959 and 2000. A reduction in matching efficiency, that depressed unemployment outflows, shifted the curve outwards in the wake of the Great Recession. In contrast, the most recent shifts in the Beveridge curve appear driven by changes in the eagerness of workers to switch jobs. Finally, we argue that, while the Beveridge curve is a useful tool for relating unemployment and job openings to inflation, the link between these labor market indicators and inflation depends on whether and why the Beveridge curve shifted. Therefore, a careful examination of the factors underlying movements in the Beveridge curve is essential for drawing policy conclusions from the joint behavior of unemployment and job openings.
Full-Text Access | Supplementary Materials
“Perspectives on the Labor Share,” by Loukas Karabarbounis
As of 2022, the share of US income accruing to labor is at its lowest level since the Great Depression. Updating previous studies with more recent observations, I document the continuing decline of the labor share for the United States, other countries, and various industries. I discuss how changes in technology and product, labor, and capital markets affect the trend of the labor share. I also examine its relationship with other macroeconomic trends, such as rising markups, higher concentration of economic activity, and globalization. I conclude by offering some perspectives on the economic and policy implications of the labor share decline.
Full-Text Access | Supplementary Materials
“Why Labor Supply Matters for Macroeconomics,” by Richard Rogerson
Benchmark models taught in undergraduate macro do not attribute any role for labor supply as an important determinant of macroeconomic outcomes. The first part of this paper documents three facts. First, differences in hours of work across OECD economies are large and imply large differences in GDP per capita. Second, there are large differences in the size of tax and transfer programs across countries, as proxied by differences in government revenues relative to the GDP. Third, these two outcomes are strongly negatively correlated. Taken together, these facts suggest an important role for labor supply in affecting macroeconomic outcomes. I conjecture that the reason why macro textbooks do not include a discussion of labor supply stems from a belief that labor supply elasticities are sufficiently small that even large differences in work incentives do not generate important macroeconomic effects. The second part of this paper argues that this belief is based on incorrect inference linking small elasticities for prime age male to small aggregate labor supply elasticities. The role of labor supply at the extensive margin plays a critical role in understanding this mistake in this inference.
Full-Text Access | Supplementary Materials
“How Cyclical Is the User Cost of Labor?” by Marianna Kudlyak
In employment relationships, a wage is an installment payment on an implicit long-term agreement between a worker and a firm. The price of labor that impacts firm’s hiring decisions, instead, reflects the hiring wage as well as the impact of economic conditions at the time of hiring on future wages. Measured by the labor’s user cost, the price of labor is substantially more pro-cyclical than the new-hire wage or the average wage. The strong procyclicality of the price of labor calls for other forces for cyclical labor demand to explain employment fluctuations.
Full-Text Access | Supplementary Materials
Privacy Protection and Government Data
“Government Data of the People, by the People, for the People: Navigating Citizen Privacy Concerns,” by Claire McKay Bowen
The data privacy community generally agrees that government data should be more widely accessible, especially being of the people (data collected about them), by the people (collected and supported using taxpayer dollars), and for the people (providing public and social good). But what to protect in that data and how to do so are highly and intensely debated. This paper discusses the fundamental tradeoff between data privacy and data usefulness—and how determining an appropriate balance can be difficult. The paper also provides thoughts on what must be addressed to help shape the future of data privacy, make meaningful contributions to its policy debates, and ensure the responsible representation of people in data.
Full-Text Access | Supplementary Materials
“When Privacy Protection Goes Wrong: How and Why the 2020 Census Confidentiality Program Failed,” by Steven Ruggles
The US Census Bureau implemented a new disclosure control strategy for the 2020 Census that adds deliberate error to every population statistic for every geographic unit smaller than a state, including metropolitan areas, cities, and counties. This article traces the evolving rationale for the new procedures and assesses the impact of the 2020 disclosure control on data quality. The Census Bureau argues that the traditional disclosure controls used for the 2010 and earlier censuses revealed the confidential responses of millions of Americans. I argue that this claim is unsupported, and that there is no evidence that anyone’s responses were compromised. The new disclosure control strategies introduce unnecessary error with no clear benefit; in fact, the new procedures may actually be less effective for protecting confidentiality than the procedures they replaced. I conclude with recommendations for minimizing disclosure risk while maximizing data utility in future censuses.
Full-Text Access | Supplementary Materials
Articles
“Gabriel Zucman: Winner of the 2023 Clark Medal,” by Emmanuel Saez
The 2023 John Bates Clark Medal of the American Economic Association was awarded to Gabriel Zucman, associate professor of economics at the University of California, Berkeley for his fundamental contributions to the study of inequality and taxation. Through meticulous empirical work and creative methodological approaches, he has revealed key trends about the concentration of global wealth, the size and distribution of tax evasion, and the tax-saving strategies of multinational companies. These findings have had a profound impact on the academic literature and on global policy debates. He has shifted the way economic research is done by showing that measurement can have a large impact in our field and on the world, inspiring many younger scholars to follow in his footsteps.
Full-Text Access | Supplementary Materials
Features
“Recommendations for Further Reading,” by Timothy Taylor
